What is Theresa Waiting For?

Whatever my views, we’ve decided to leave the EU and as Mrs May is now famous for saying ‘Brexit means Brexit’, so why doesn’t she get on with it?

Preparation takes time. Before negotiating even the smallest of deals, you need to be well prepared, and we’ve been advised this week of the expected additional cost and recruitment needs. Set next to 43 years of membership and integration and the time the negotiations will likely take, the period of preparation measured in months rather than years is disproportionate.

It seems that hardly a day goes by without either a UK pro-Brexiteer or an EU official suggesting that we should get on with it. There’s a gap between the unelected officials and the elected representatives of the people.

The EU, and particularly the countries of the Euro Zone, are in a mess. There’s a German hegemony that is beggaring southern Europe (under-valued German currency and massively over-valued southern European currency). There’s never been a successful monetary union without a parallel or preceding political and fiscal (read corporation and income tax) union. To state the obvious, there are the beginnings of a political union in the EU and no fiscal union. Without a single fiscal authority within the Euro Zone there can be no common monetary policy for that zone. The political will / union appears to be fracturing; the unelected officials of the EU seem to be further and further ahead of the European electorate when it comes to integration. With political union stagnant at best and possibly fracturing there’s no chance of a fiscal union.

The question becomes then how long will the Southern European countries and France put up with this, probably not much longer. In any case, the situation gets worse by the day, deficits rise, borrowing rises to fund deficits, and the need to devalue to re-balance the economies becomes worse. Or in the jargon austerity continues so that Germany can, in theory, be repaid debts that in practice can never be repaid and which must, therefore, be forgiven. Plus we may have another banking collapse, lead this time by the German banks.

The worse the mess in the EU the better the deal that the UK can negotiate and / or the less impact a so-called hard Brexit will have on the UK. Playing the long game may be playing the smart game. A ‘week is a long time in politics’* six months is a lifetime.

*Harold Wilson, UK PM 1964 to 70 and 1974 to 76.

eu-and-brexit-zip

Telegraph Hub: Eleven Top Trends In Managing Your Money

ArchOver has teamed up with The Telegraph to produce a series of articles to help educate investors on the UK Peer-to-Peer Lending sector. In a brave new economic and financial world, understanding different ways of managing your money is key to success. Peer-to-Peer Lending can help both individuals and businesses navigate a post-Brexit world, with the reassurance that it is a secured and effective method of protecting and growing your money.

From chatbot banking to peer-to-peer lending, this year has seen some major shifts in the way people are taking care of their money.

Thanks to landmark events such as the Brexit vote and an interest rate cut, as well as the constant evolution of new technology, 2016 has already seen some major changes in how we manage our money. Here are 10 of the top trends.

Power to the people

The disintermediation revolution that swept through media and publishing has come to financial services. More people are taking control of their money and their investments, and, in a few years, we’ll look back on paying fund managers, independent financial advisers and the like as simply ludicrous. This of course, is a technology-based revolution – one led, incidentally, by a 300-plus-year-old institution, the Bank of England. “Where music and publishing have led, finance could follow,” Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s chief economist, has said.

Smartphone money management

Apps for banking and paying continue to grow in popularity. Barclays mobile payment service Pingit hit its millionth business transaction in January this year. Furthermore, according to the Centre for Economic and Business Research, some 20 million adults will use their mobiles to pay for goods and services by the end of the decade, according to the Centre for Economic and Business Research. At the other end of the scale, traditional bank branches have continued to close – there have been 546 announced in this year alone.[1]

Peer-to-peer lending and crowdfunding

The launch of the Innovative Finance Isa, which allows some crowdfunding and P2P investments to be held in the tax-free wrapper, puts this form of investing firmly in the spotlight – although because of delays in processing authorisation applications by the FCA, it may take longer than originally anticipated before many crowdfunding and lending platforms are actually available as ISAs.

Add to this the cut in Bank Rate and it’s clear that more people may be considering this as a way of earning income from their savings. Always check the security provided and how liquid this security is; the best platforms are clear on this and provide security on highly liquid assets – although unlike putting money in the bank it is not risk-free, so you may want to seek advice.

Global investment

Post-Brexit, the UK stock market has become a less popular place to be. The latest figures from the Investment Association[2] show that £1bn came out of UK equity funds in July – whereas global funds saw an increase in sales, suggesting that investors are looking further afield for returns.

Premium bonds

Sometimes the old ones are the best. The Government’s National Savings & Investments (NS&I) hiked the maximum amount of premium bonds that savers can hold from £40,000 to £50,000 in June 2015.

The result? A £14bn increase in premium bond investments to £61.8bn in the 12 months to March. The average return on the bonds is just 1.25pc, but with rates for bank savings at record lows, many savers are hoping to get lucky.

Glistening gold

Uncertain times encourage many to buy gold, which is seen as the ultimate safe haven. Economic events including the Brexit vote saw gold investors nearly double their money in the first seven months of 2016.[3]

Biometric security[4]

Fed up remembering all of those passwords and PIN numbers? They’re already becoming a thing of the past as banks take a more personal approach. Barclays has become the first bank in the UK to use voice- recognition software to verify identity for telephone banking, with HSBC and First Direct expected to follow.

New bank Atom is also offering facial-recognition software for customers, with RBS and NatWest allowing customers to log in to their banking apps with fingerprints.

Fixed-income funds

With the Brexit vote leading to uncertainty over the future, many are turning to fixed-income funds over equities for perceived security. The Investment Association said that corporate bonds, strategic bonds and global bonds were three of the five most popular sectors in July.

Tax-efficient lodgers

Sites such as AirBnB, which allow you to rent out rooms or your home as part of the ‘sharing economy’, have continued to grow in popularity after an increase in the Rent a Room scheme from April allowed all taxpayers to rent out a room for up to £7,500 a year free of tax.

Chatbot banking

With Facebook Messenger opened up to third parties, many banks are already trialling chatbots across the world who will communicate with you through your messaging platform. By the end of the year you might be able to pay your friends and check your balance through a chatbot on Messenger.

Negative savings rates

Are you paying to bank on the high street? Perhaps not yet, but the 2016 interest rate cut to 0.25 per cent means many of us are no longer receiving any interest on our current accounts. With Royal Bank of Scotland already charging some business customers for holding cash on deposit, the spectre of us all paying to bank is perilously close.

[1] thisismoney.co.uk
[2]theinvestmentassociation.org
[3] ft.com
[4] telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking

Time to Break the Invoice Financing Habit

Many SMEs automatically cover the gap between production and payment by using invoice financiers (IFs), which claim to advance between 80% and 100% of the value of each invoice raised, but on average advance only about 63%. This has been fuelled by the reluctance of the traditional banks to lend to SMEs, but virtually all businesses would be better off using one of the other forms of finance available.

IFs usually require personal guarantees and involve huge amounts of internal administration and complicated fee structures, plus the amount of available finance is unpredictable. When business is strong, a company will have lots of money sitting in its current accounts and when business is slow, and the company really needs it, the finance is not there.

Established businesses with strong order books are better off opting for reasonably priced fixed term loans, which are easier to obtain than many believe.

business-loan

For example, ArchOver offers a fixed term loan for up to two years, which can be rolled over for a further period if desired. This means the business always knows how much is in the bank and the same finance is available in slow times as in good.

These are secured against the insured long-term value of the debtor book and, as long as the value of accounts receivable stays above a certain level, the finance will remain the same. The loans are remarkably straightforward to arrange and no personal guarantees are required.

It is often said that IFs are good for start-up companies with no trading history or stable debtor book, and the amount of finance available grows as the company grows. Nonsense, these enterprises really need equity finance as growth in start-ups is never in a straight line and the problems of good and bad periods are even greater.

It is essential to look beyond IFs in all situations

To learn more about how ArchOver can help with your business needs, contact a member of the team today at 0203 021 8100.

Perilous Times For Pension Pots… Not Necessarily

A choir formed of politicians, journalists and disgruntled employees continue to call for Sir Phillip Green to get his cheque book out to plug the £700m pension deficit at BHS. The once well regarded retail magnate sold the now bust British department store for £1, but not before he and his shareholders paid themselves more than £400m in dividends. It is unlikely that Green – worth an estimated US$5.7 Billion – will sort out this mess; and so blameless pensioners who can ill afford to lose a pound will be left out of pocket. Sadly, this tragic story is no anomaly; 130,000 Tata Steel employees stand to lose a quarter of their retirement income. The devastation that this will inflict on families, from Tyneside to Port Talbot, is huge and will last at least a generation.

Corporate irresponsibility can cripple pension funds, however it is the Bank of England’s latest move – cutting interest rates and beginning a new £70bn quantitative easing programme – that will cause pensioners considerable pain. By buying gilts – instruments pension schemes use to value their liabilities –  the BoE is forcing yields down. “The UK’s benchmark 10-year borrowing rates touched a new low of 0.51% last week; while short-dated gilts due in March 2019 and March 2020 briefly traded below zero” (The Financial Times, 2016). As a result, we are now running a £1.3trn deficit on private pension funding, with 56 FTSE-100 firms in arrears with their defined-benefit pension schemes (MoneyWeek, 2016).

 

bond yield plunge

(Source: The Financial Times, Aug-10, 2016)

 

According to David Blake from London’s Cass Business School, “The Bank of England clearly believes that the effect [of low interest rates] on our pension system is acceptable long-term collateral damage”. Indeed, until monetary conditions normalise, the outlook for retirees will remain gruesome. There is, however, a faint glimmer of hope. A beacon around which pensioners and savers alike can rally to make impressive returns. P2P.

pension pot

Thanks to the ‘freedom and choice’ introduced to Britain’s pension systems, you can invest in P2P through a Self-Invested Personal Pension (SIPP) and soon via ISAs. If you’d like to take control of your pension pot, earn above average interest, and enjoy substantial tax benefits – all the while helping great British businesses grow – investing through a SIPP one of the P2P platforms could be for you. Rates of interest vary as do levels of security, careful research will indicate which platform and it could easily be more than one best suits your needs. Next week ArchOver will release a step-by-step guide, detailing how SIPPs work, who can set one up (anyone), and how you can use this flexible investment product to invest in P2P.