Making the most of your money

Angus Dent, chief executive of peer-to-peer business lender ArchOver, explains how P2P is attracting the next generation of investors and savers

As inflation grows ahead of expectations, far too many savers are seeing the value of their hard-earned cash decline.

Recent research from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) found that just under a third (30 per cent) of UK adults would not be able to cope if their mortgage repayments increased by £50 a month. With the recent 0.25 per cent rate rise, it won’t be long before these households feel the squeeze. To add insult to injury, the rate rise is not being passed on to savers, and the chances of interest rates catching up with inflation any time soon are extremely slim.

There’s no room to breathe in the current system. UK households can’t build a proper financial buffer with their low interest rates, and it’s even harder to achieve a decent return on investment.

ArchOver’s ‘Next Gen: Investors and Savers’ report, which explores the investing and saving behaviour of UK adults, illustrates that the response to these challenges has been mixed to say the least.

We’re told that millennials are stuck in a financial rut, trapped by high property prices and low wage growth. In reality, however, it appears that a larger proportion of millennials are putting their money to work than older generations, getting higher returns on their investments and being bolder with their portfolio options. The rise of a subscription-service mentality means the ‘digital native’ generation is pushing the boundaries, more willing to make short-term, high-yield investments.

Caution and safety

Despite this growing willingness to consider new investment options, the overwhelming reaction to change across all generations thus far has been to bury our heads (and money) in the sand and hope for a sunnier day.

In total, two-thirds (67 per cent) of UK adults see themselves as savers. This is a group that is using savings accounts and pension funds to sit on their cash. It’s human nature to be careful in a crisis and they like the security these options provide. Well over half of savers associate the word ‘savings’ with ‘security’. The danger for these savers, though, is that they risk seeing their nest egg dwindle away over time as inflation and low interest rates eat away at their money. They are being led down the primrose path by deceptively ‘safe’ banking options.

On the other hand, the remaining third (33 per cent) of UK adults see themselves as investors, using riskier avenues like stocks, shares and property to grow their investments. They’re bolder than their counterparts, but still more than half associate the increased risk with uncertainty and caution.

As a result, the majority will only put their cash in traditional investments that they’ve used before, or that a friend would recommend to them. The legacy of economic instability from the global financial crisis in 2008, alongside political uncertainty in the form of Brexit and Trump, is making investors wary. Until they can get greater clarity, even the UK’s most adventurous investors are playing it cool.

Diversifying your portfolio

Both of these camps could make a change. There are other ways to balance security and risk in order to maximise returns without putting their capital in too much danger. In a challenging economic environment, savers and investors need to broaden their options and embrace alternative forms of finance.

At the same time, the peer-to-peer lending sector has been steadily maturing over the last five years. P2P is leading the charge in alternative financing options for UK adults stuck in a financial rut. Rather than committing their money to the banks and hoping for the best, P2P lets people put their money into investment options they believe in and can trust to grow, helping them to boost their returns at an acceptable level of risk.

As investors and savers look to break out of the cycle of low returns, P2P is set to be a key part of the next generation of investment in the UK.

The rise of P2P

For example, UK savers and investors are showing a willingness to embrace P2P lending. When thinking about their money, six in 10 (64 per cent) respondents would be willing to lend to family or friends if they gave their word they’d pay the money back. This rises to 68 per cent for savers and sinks to 54 per cent for investors.

UK savers and investors are also willing to back British businesses. Six in 10 (63 per cent) would be willing to lend to a business. Over a quarter (26 per cent) would lend to a business that could use their assets as security. A quarter (25 per cent) would lend to an established business that has been operating for a few years and 11 per cent would lend to a start-up business.

However, while the number of investors willing to lend to a business rises to 90 per cent, the number of savers is just 50 per cent. When it comes to P2P, investors are leading the way. Over half (54 per cent) claimed they would put money into the new Innovative Finance ISA (IFISA) if they had the disposable income available, since it offers a higher return on their savings (63 per cent), higher levels of interest payments per year (42 per cent) and because they have more confidence in the P2P sector now certain platforms have been approved by the FCA (31 per cent).

Understanding a new sector

Yet more than a third of investors (39 per cent) are still nervous about the risk of losing their money. Over a third (37 per cent) are still concerned that they don’t fully understand the sector and just under a third (31 per cent) still don’t see P2P as a fully regulated sector.

Ultimately, P2P is still likely to attract those with less need for security, as continued uncertainty around the maturity of the sector has yet to wash away. In contrast to investors, just over a third (36 per cent) of UK savers would put their savings into an IFISA if they had the disposable income available. This is despite 61 per cent of savers recognising that they would achieve a higher return on their money and 42 per cent acknowledging that it would offer higher levels of interest payments per year.

However, the majority (57 per cent) are held back by the fact they still don’t understand the IFISA and 48 per cent are nervous about the risk of losing their money. Further education and assurance is needed to shake UK savers from their stasis and encourage them to embrace new saving vehicles.

P2P lending may have been seen as an uncertain option for a decade. Now, as investors continue to experience rock-bottom interest rates, and City watchdogs approve new forms of alternative finance, P2P is coming of age as an alternative asset class. Institutional investors are now being attracted to the sector, with high-profile fund managers like Neil Woodford and Artemis investing in RateSetter. However, this is only the beginning. No wonder it is one of the fastest growing markets in the UK.

P2P and the future of investing

As the country continues to recover from the aftershocks of 2008, people’s propensity for risk doesn’t have to change, but the contents of their portfolios should. The financial crisis has sparked a decade of change and we’ll see high-return, high-security P2P options leading the way to higher returns as part of a diverse portfolio.

P2P has already benefitted many areas. It has advanced day-to-day business lending, provided new routes to finance, and supported innovation among British businesses. The list goes on. But the full extent of its potential for savers and investors has not been realised. Not quite yet.

For many, P2P is still seen as a new concept and there has been a desire to cling onto traditional relationships with bank managers, but times are changing. P2P lenders are now established businesses, many of them operating for at least eight or nine years. With new P2P business models in place, savers and investors can have confidence in the security of their funds at a time when rates of interest remain extremely low.

What’s more, despite our research pointing to a millennial boom in alternative investing, Gen X is the most strongly represented group on the ArchOver platform. There may be a gap between what people say they do with their money and what they actually do – but what we can say for certain is that P2P is not constrained to one generation. Millennials and Gen X are both showing interest in the benefits it can bring and are starting to broaden their portfolios.

Our research shows how the UK population is behaving now, but it also points the way forward. The good news is the need for security naturally decreases when individuals and businesses recognise that they are not operating in their normal climate. It is time to educate investors and savers on how new investment options could help them make the most of their money.

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About the research

ArchOver commissioned independent research firm, 3Gem, to survey 2,000 UK adults about their attitudes towards risk and investment in the current climate. The research explored whether economic uncertainty, political decisions, interest rates, inflation changes and housing market conditions are driving a new appetite for investment. It also considered the various behaviours and attitudes of investors and savers towards the alternative finance market.

France

There was a time, not so long ago, when having some cash in the bank earning a reasonable level of interest was considered quite a smart thing to be doing, particularly since you could be pretty certain that your capital was safe. But that was before the 2008 financial crisis and interest rates fell through the floor – not just in the UK, but globally. Your money remains in a secure place, but you are likely to be earning next to nothing in real terms.

The problem is so severe in some parts of the world – Japan, for example – that you have to pay a bank to look after your cash because interest rates are negative. Closer to home, in France, where the equivalent to what we call Base Rate is 0%, the very best rate of interest you can hope to receive on your savings is 1.75%; or 0.75% if you want to retain reasonable access to your money.

If you take into account the fact that inflation in France is running at around 0.6% – not too bad, in European terms – it means that de facto savers are earning zilch. And if you factor in that their powerful neighbours, Germany, on which France depends for so much of its trade exports, have inflation running at 1.7%, it is inevitable that some of that inflation will be imported, reducing the actual return to less than zilch.

It would not take a massive leap of imagination to see that inflationary pressures are likely to increase, particularly if members of OPEC decide to restrict oil production and the global price goes through the roof as a result. To add to the gloomy outlook you have Marine Le Pen threatening to destabilise the whole political scene in France, with some commentators already speculating about the possibility of ‘FREXIT’.

All in all, it is probably not a great time to be sitting on a pile of cash in France, particularly if you rely on the interest generated to supplement your income. But if, as a French citizen, you cast your eyes across the English Channel you will see straight away that, because of the fall in the value of sterling since Brexit, investments in the UK are c12% cheaper than they were, say, six months ago. You will also see that returns of 6% or more, combined with reasonable security, are freely available through P2P loans. And if you look at ArchOver’s ‘Secured and Insured’ proposition – made possible with the help of Coface, an established French institution – you might just see the answer to your prayers. Let us hope so.

 

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Switzerland

Switzerland is widely recognised as having one of the most independent, prosperous and stable economies in the world, which is why for decades nervous investors have regarded the country as a safe haven for their money in times of global turbulence.

In 2014, when Russia was facing huge problems and money was pouring into Switzerland chasing up the local currency, the Swiss National Bank surprised the world by dropping the domestic Base Rate to minus 0.25% in a determined effort to weaken the value of the Swiss Franc because it was damaging the country’s export effort. Today, and for the same reason, Switzerland’s Base Rate stands at minus 0.75%.

Although the Swiss economy has had two relatively sluggish years in 2015-16, it is expected to grow by around 1.5% in 2017. Yet Bond yields remain at minus 0.19%, which hardly provides rich pickings for local yield-hungry investors who, per capita, are reckoned to be the world’s wealthiest.

Back in the UK, we have a parallel situation regarding low fixed interest returns and following our decision to leave the EU – an organisation with which, of course, Switzerland has never been integrated – we are moving to a position where we will have even more in common.

The one crucial difference from an investor’s point of view is that the UK has developed some attractive alternative asset forms, such as P2P loans the demand for which is booming. Yields of 6% and more are commonplace which, bearing in mind the relative security provided by the larger platforms through provision funds or, in ArchOver’s case, credit insurance, represents something approaching a decent return.

No one is pretending that P2P loans are risk free – of course capital can be at risk – but many individuals and institutions have decided that, given all the information available, the transparency and free entry for investors to participate, the overall odds are worth accepting.

As ever, investment timing is vitally important. Sterling, which took such a battering following the Brexit vote, is slowly recovering and is expected to rise in value against currencies like the Swiss Franc. In the meantime, the lower value of our currency is doing wonders for our exporters and the UK economy is now expected to grow. All things considered, and bearing in mind that low interest rates look like being part of the financial landscape for the foreseeable future, now would seem to be a very good time to invest in UK PLC – leave it too late and you could ‘miss the bus’.

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“The P2P Sector Is Growing Up”

There was always going to come a time when the Alternative Finance revolution would falter – maybe we have already reached that point. P2P lending and equity crowdfunding are no longer quite so new and, as the latest missive from the FCA makes clear, this particular side of the Altfi sector has outgrown the rule book. There are also early signs that the novelty is starting to wear off, certainly with the media. So, perhaps now is an ideal opportunity to take a step back and reflect.

Looking ahead into 2017, it is difficult to see how the benign conditions that have helped P2P platforms to create such a significant presence so rapidly – e.g. recovering economy, low interest rates, banks on the back foot – can continue indefinitely. Sooner or later interest rates will start to climb back up and there will be a downturn in the economic cycle. And, with so few platform operators making a profit, there are bound to be casualties.

Some platform backers may grow impatient with the expensive pursuit of acquiring market share at any cost and insist on seeing a return on their investment. Other platforms may simply ‘time out’ because their proposition is not sufficiently different or they have insufficient mass or financial backing to continue.

This could lead to business failures or, more likely, mergers/take-overs of platforms. Consolidation would be a perfectly normal phase for an emerging sector that has a myriad of players all vying for customers and profitability. The High Street banks, too, will recover their poise and may decide to dip their collective toe in the water by making a P2P acquisition or two of their own – if they do, they will almost certainly take aim at the biggest, the most established or those best placed to be scaled. All this is not so much to be pessimistic, rather it is to be realistic. Consolidation is inevitable.

The important thing is to make sure that P2P lenders do not suffer financially. If a platform fails, it does not follow that the loans in which the lenders are invested go bad. All P2P operators should have run-off plans in place to cover that eventuality – something that the FCA, quite rightly, insists upon. If private investors start to lose money, the press and other critics will have a field day.

What is also important is that the P2P sector does not allow itself to be divided into a number of component parts, either into the large and small platforms, or those with different business models. The sector should operate as one for its own protection and for the common good.

The P2P sector is growing up – it can either be in charge of that process or be at the mercy of others.

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