What is Theresa Waiting For?

Whatever my views, we’ve decided to leave the EU and as Mrs May is now famous for saying ‘Brexit means Brexit’, so why doesn’t she get on with it?

Preparation takes time. Before negotiating even the smallest of deals, you need to be well prepared, and we’ve been advised this week of the expected additional cost and recruitment needs. Set next to 43 years of membership and integration and the time the negotiations will likely take, the period of preparation measured in months rather than years is disproportionate.

It seems that hardly a day goes by without either a UK pro-Brexiteer or an EU official suggesting that we should get on with it. There’s a gap between the unelected officials and the elected representatives of the people.

The EU, and particularly the countries of the Euro Zone, are in a mess. There’s a German hegemony that is beggaring southern Europe (under-valued German currency and massively over-valued southern European currency). There’s never been a successful monetary union without a parallel or preceding political and fiscal (read corporation and income tax) union. To state the obvious, there are the beginnings of a political union in the EU and no fiscal union. Without a single fiscal authority within the Euro Zone there can be no common monetary policy for that zone. The political will / union appears to be fracturing; the unelected officials of the EU seem to be further and further ahead of the European electorate when it comes to integration. With political union stagnant at best and possibly fracturing there’s no chance of a fiscal union.

The question becomes then how long will the Southern European countries and France put up with this, probably not much longer. In any case, the situation gets worse by the day, deficits rise, borrowing rises to fund deficits, and the need to devalue to re-balance the economies becomes worse. Or in the jargon austerity continues so that Germany can, in theory, be repaid debts that in practice can never be repaid and which must, therefore, be forgiven. Plus we may have another banking collapse, lead this time by the German banks.

The worse the mess in the EU the better the deal that the UK can negotiate and / or the less impact a so-called hard Brexit will have on the UK. Playing the long game may be playing the smart game. A ‘week is a long time in politics’* six months is a lifetime.

*Harold Wilson, UK PM 1964 to 70 and 1974 to 76.

eu-and-brexit-zip

Are Commerzbank about to blaze the P2P Lending trail?

In the Twittersphere, the word “Fintech” tends to provoke a lot of hot air. Speculation leads to everything from wild estimations and massive valuations to doomsday predictions and floccinaucinihilipilification. You aren’t going to get that word into 140 characters easily, but the exaggerated fervorous lexicon endemic to “#FinTech” dictates that you should try to if you want to fit in. And it isn’t just Twitter; print media and digital news services regularly produce supercharged opinion articles that try so hard to “think the unthinkable” that the “thinkable” (and usually the reasonable) is of seemingly negligible importance. As I’ve said before, that is what happens when you create a portmanteau that attempts to define such far-reaching businesses and sectors. Readers will start to think that Bitcoin price fluctuations become, all of a sudden, of tantamount importance to a Peer to Peer lending platform.

In light of this, Crowdfund Insider’s headline “Germany’s Second Largest Bank, Commerzbank, said to Launch P2P Platform this Year” seems to suggest a familiar speculatory path is being trodden, particularly as it comes from “informed sources” whispering in the ear of the P2P-Banking.com blog. The article claims that German behemoth Commerzbank plans to launch its own P2P Lending marketplace, “Main Funders”, in 2016. Yet what is particularly interesting here is that this would be the first sign of a bank directly implementing an in-house peer-to-peer lending operation. Why is this interesting? Because it makes a lot of sense, and it could herald a huge change in the way people see peer to peer lending. Plenty of banks, both big and small, are showing an increased appetite for lending across platforms in both the UK, US and Europe. Under German law, only banks can fund loans; to bypass this all existing P2P lending companies in Germany partner with a transaction bank which originates the loan and then sells the proceeds (repayments and interest) to the investors: a complex procedure that is hardly widespread. By building its own platform, Commerzbank would circumvent some of the legal hurdles and provide the tailored, modern and agile solution to SME borrowing that the banks in the UK can’t (or won’t) provide, whilst also offering investors and savers an increase on the miserable rates they are all too used to.

Commerzbank has Main Incubator as their fintech accelerator offering venture capital to start ups, so it is an area that they should know well and more importantly have a vested interest in. This may sound like bad news for smaller peer to peer lending platforms who may fear being muscled out. However, it is more likely a case of “imitation is the sincerest form of flattery”: established banks bring the wealth, history and stature that could help Peer to Peer Lending escape from the bubble of hot air that is “Fintech”. However, is this really P2P lending? We have a bank, a highly regulated entity, entering a market that isn’t so highly regulated, certainly in terms of capital requirements. One of the things that has driven the banks away from SME lending is the large amounts of capital they have to put aside for these loans. This is behind the drive towards Invoice Discounting, which requires less capital to be put aside. Commerzbank’s solution could be that their P2P requires less capital than ordinary SME lending. There’s also the question as to whether Commerzbank, and other German banks, have made sufficient provision for the bad lending of the past. Is this a case of smoke and mirrors in the form of moving things around the balance sheet?

What is certain is that banks’ enthusiasm for P2P lending would produce solid, mutually beneficial relationships that can help SMEs and savers alike. Yes, there will inevitably be teething problems as the banks adapt to the fleet-footed world of P2P lending and the P2P lenders adapt their models to fit the strict regulatory processes of the banks. But Commerzbank’s embryonic P2P marketplace could be the trailblazer that sets the way for future banking… if it exists at all.

Crowdnetic’s Crowdfinance 2015 – Panel: Europe, the View Europe

Europe and in particular the UK leads the world of alternative finance and crowdfunding. ArchOver took part at Crowdnetic Crowdfinance event in New York providing a view of the alternative finance landscape in Europe. ArchOver and Angus Dent were joined on the panel by Assetz CapitalBondora, and  Money&Co.