Tag: interest rates

The Bank Model: Broken?

Author
Angus Dent
Date

Each day brings fresh evidence that the traditional UK banking model is under intense pressure, if not actually on the verge of breaking down altogether. RBS was on the receiving end of some elaborate media speculation last weekend that it was planning to shed a further 15,000 jobs to save £800m per annum in costs; not surprisingly, the report failed to elicit any official response from the bank in advance of it publishing its results later this month. However, that it is still in business at all, having lost a reported £50bn since its original Government bail-out in 2008, is little short of a miracle. In any other sector, losses on this scale would not be tolerated. The financial institutions, including the banks themselves, would simply call time on the business and its management.

RBS clearly has some special problems, including the need to replace an obsolete IT system that is prone to breaking down, but there is one common and lethal trend that plagues all the banks – the fall in interest rates to record levels. Resulting margins are simply too fine to sustain profitable existence, which is why we also learnt last week that the Co-op Bank has put itself up for sale. Good luck with that.

Adding to the woes is the fact that low interest rates are extremely popular with politicians because, in combination with the fall in the value of sterling, they can power economic growth in this post Brexit era by helping our exporters. They also keep down the costs of borrowing, including mortgages. The irony is that, if and when interest rates do start to rise, we know from their past behaviour that the banks are likely to put up the cost of borrowing before they pass on any of the benefits to long-suffering savers. That’s how they will hope to restore margins.

It begs the question that, if the banks can’t earn a decent crust in times of low interest rates, how can they expect anyone else to, especially if they don’t enjoy the same special dispensation to make losses. The picture becomes even more disturbing when set against the backdrop of rising inflation, which we learn was 1.8% in January, up from 1.6% in December. Already, this is almost alongside the Bank or England’s target of 2% for this year and racing towards the 2.7% predicted for 2018.

The low interest rate era looks like it will be with us for some time yet and it is hard not to feel sorry for the honest savers who have just seen another 0.25% shaved off their returns from National Savings products – a move quickly reflected in bank and building society deposit rates.

What it means is that the relatively secure returns that are readily available through P2P loans are looking more attractive with each passing day.

Telegraph Hub: How does peer-to-peer business lending work?

Author
Angus Dent
Date

ArchOver has teamed up with The Telegraph to produce a series of articles to help educate investors on the UK Peer-to-Peer Lending sector. In a brave new economic and financial world, understanding different ways of managing your money is key to success. P2P Lending can help both individuals and businesses navigate a post-Brexit world, with the reassurance that it is a secured and effective method of protecting and growing your money.

Despite being a relatively new phenomenon, peer-to-peer lending (P2P) is already transforming the way in which businesses grow and income-seekers invest.

The concept of using the internet to bypass banks and lend money directly to businesses and individuals has only been around since 2005. However, a recent report from Cambridge University showed that more than 12 per cent of new lending to small and medium businesses came from the peer-to-peer sector, with 20,000 small and medium-sized businesses raising money this way in 2015.

In fact, peer-to-peer lending to businesses is the largest part of the UK’s burgeoning alternative finance market, with a 194 percent average growth rate between 2013 and 2015.

According to Angus Dent, CEO of P2P lending company ArchOver, this growth has occurred because P2P brings together two different needs – the need for businesses to get finance and the need for ordinary people to find income.

What rates can you earn via P2P lending?

The rate you get will depend on the length of time you lend to the business, the amount you lend and the security behind the loan.

According to rates on comparison site Moneysupermarket, these rates include:

    •  4.25 per cent for an easy-access scheme lending to businesses

    •  3.5 per cent lending to individuals with easy access to loans

    •  2.25 per cent lending to property developers for a year

    •  7 per cent lending to small and medium-sized businesses over the long term

Obviously, these are far higher rates than you would get in the bank, but it’s worth remembering your money is at risk of not being repaid and your investment is not covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS).

money

How can you invest?

P2P business lending can be carried out through several different kinds of accounts, to maximise returns:

• Directly with the P2P provider, with the first £1,000 of your returns being tax-free (£500 for higher rate taxpayers) in the same way as cash

• Through a self-invested personal pension (SIPP)

• Through an Isa, known as the Innovative Finance Isa for P2P providers who have passed FCA checks

How does it work?

For investors, getting cash returns from P2P is a simple process with a number of steps.

You research P2P and decide how much to invest

Peer-to-peer lending is suitable as part of a diversified portfolio for those who understand that they may not get all of their money paid back.

You decide on a PTP lender to work with

Some things to check include: how much you will have to lend, when you will get your money back and how much you understand about who you’re lending to. Some companies choose to spread your money between many businesses while others allow you to lend to only one business. Some P2P sites charge fees and others do not.

If, as is the case with ArchOver, you lend on a loan-by-loan or business-by-business basis check you are happy with its business model, which is available on their platform, and do your research.

Check your security

Different P2P lenders have different approaches to ensuring your money is paid back. Some have a contingency fund and some allow you to choose to lend to businesses or individuals who have been risk assessed. ArchOver’s ‘secured and insured’ model ensures the Accounts Receivable of a business and takes a charge over this, which is registered at Companies House, to give you extra security. They also require the business to take out insurance on the accounts receivable.

Make an application

You’ll need to pass credit checks and give statutory information before you lend through a P2P platform.

Lend the money

Lending your cash on a platform for between three months and five years. You will receive interest at regular intervals and your money back at the agreed time provided the borrower does not default. You’ll need to tell the taxman about interest received unless your P2P investment is in an Isa or SIPP.

Falling Further Down the Rabbit Hole

Author
Angus Dent
Date

The rate at which the Bank of England is prepared to lend short-term money to financial institutions looks set to fall below its current historic low of 0.5 per cent to 0.25 per cent, a move designed to stimulate the stuttering British economy. However, I would argue that further suppressing the cost of credit will do little to help British businesses battling Brexit uncertainty. Instead this rather negligible Interest Rate reduction will inflate the debt bubble while further punishing pensioners and savers, thereby diminishing waning economic confidence; thus costing companies dear. So what is the MPC’s rationale?

interest rates

In Money Creation in The Modern Economy – a paper published by the Bank of England in 2014 – Michael McLeay, Amar Radia and Ryland Thomas explain how commercial banks create money via the provision of loans to households and companies. Contrary to economic theory outlined in most textbooks, ‘rather than banks receiving deposits when households save and then lending them out, bank lending creates deposits’ (McLeay et al., p.1, 2014). It is thus the commercial banks (not the Bank of England) who create money. The interest rate – otherwise known as the ‘repo rate’ – acts as the ultimate constraint to commercial bank’s ability to create money as it determines the price and consequently the profitability of lending. By lowering interest rates, the MPC are reducing the price of credit and thus imploring commercial banks to conjure up more money by writing new loans.

The MPC hope that more ‘fountain pen money’ – money created at the stroke of bankers’ pens – might help to sand over the cracks our decision to leave the EU has created. It will not. Rather, it is a vote of no confidence in the UK economy, an economy currently plagued by uncertainty. What’s more, it proves we have learnt little from the 2008 financial crisis. As Mervyn King (2010) suggests, ‘for all the clever innovation in the financial system, its Achilles heel was, and remains, simply the extraordinary – indeed absurd – levels of leverage represented by a heavy reliance on short-term debt.’ Would raising interest rates be such a bad idea?

Does the UK’s low inflation present an opportunity for UK SMEs?

Author
Angus Dent
Date

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Despite UK interest rates plumbing historic lows, inflation fell negative this April for the first time since 1960. This is plainly an unusual occurrence, particularly in the face of such expansionary monetary policy, and has led some public figures to fret that it could be a “canary in the mine” of the UK recovery; a symptom of some underlying economic malaise. In truth though this gloomy outlook seems largely unwarranted, and Mark Carney has forecast that this deflationary blip will be forgotten by the end of year when inflation, he believes, will sit above 1%. Indeed, he has already been partially vindicated by news that inflation is now positive again – albeit at just 0.1%.

The Bank of England forecast should sooth fears of a Japanese-style deflationary spiral then. But this near-deflationary environment will likely remain a reality for the next few months. So will this period pose opportunities or threats to SMEs? Unsurprisingly, the answer is not entirely clear-cut.

inlfation

A low inflation environment certainly can bring many benefits to businesses, such as allowing them to capitalise on static costs to make large purchases at favourable prices. In fact, a recent poll published in Economia found that just under one third of SMEs plan to increase capital investment in the next 12 months, so it seems many small business directors have already acknowledged this. Most businesses will also benefit from energy costs remaining constrained, whilst those in the manufacturing sector specifically will profit from steady input costs. On the consumer side, the brief drop into deflation may act as a shot in the arm for business, with people’s increased purchasing power stimulating spending. And speaking more generally, the next few months will provide SMEs with a chance to reflect and streamline their expenditure in preparation for the point when inflation appears again and margins are squeezed.

So far, so good then. But at only 0.1% inflation a brief slip back into deflation remains a possibility, and this could be problematic. Most worryingly, a second dip could pique the thrifty instincts of consumers, causing individuals and businesses to postpone purchases in anticipation of lower prices rather than cashing in on good prices now. Whilst current forecasts make this seem unlikely, the message for SMEs is clear: take advantage whilst you can.