Tag: Banking

Governor of the Bank of England Predicts Revolution

Author
Angus Dent
Date

Catching up on London FinTech PodCast 54 I was pointed to a speech by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England that for horrible reasons, the murder of Jo Cox MP, was not made. It’s a pity the speech wasn’t made as it makes some good points about FinTech, the relationship between FinTech and banking and banking more generally.

Mark Carney

The point is made that it is technology or more specifically the increasingly ubiquitous access to technology that is driving the democratising effect of FinTech. At the end of last year there were circa 2Bn smartphones worldwide. Rather than accepting that this is a process simply to be welcomed Carney goes on to say that FinTech will help in four specific areas;

“For the financial sector, these could offer shorter, speedier transaction chains; greater capital efficiency; and stronger operational resilience. For consumers, they could mean more choice; better-targeted services; and keener pricing. For everyone, FinTech may deliver a more inclusive financial system, domestically and globally; with people better connected, more informed and increasingly empowered.”

Nothing too earth shattering in the above summary, he goes on to predict revolution;

“These benefits spring from FinTech’s potential to deliver a great unbundling of banking into its core functions of settling payments, performing maturity transformation, sharing risk and allocating capital. This would mean revolution, fundamentally re-shaping the financial system.“

Heady stuff from a central banker……and apparently a revolution he wishes to encourage and for the bank of England to be a part of, albeit he expects the effects of the revolution to take many years to work through.

 

 

Are Commerzbank about to blaze the P2P Lending trail?

Author
Angus Dent
Date

In the Twittersphere, the word “Fintech” tends to provoke a lot of hot air. Speculation leads to everything from wild estimations and massive valuations to doomsday predictions and floccinaucinihilipilification. You aren’t going to get that word into 140 characters easily, but the exaggerated fervorous lexicon endemic to “#FinTech” dictates that you should try to if you want to fit in. And it isn’t just Twitter; print media and digital news services regularly produce supercharged opinion articles that try so hard to “think the unthinkable” that the “thinkable” (and usually the reasonable) is of seemingly negligible importance. As I’ve said before, that is what happens when you create a portmanteau that attempts to define such far-reaching businesses and sectors. Readers will start to think that Bitcoin price fluctuations become, all of a sudden, of tantamount importance to a Peer to Peer lending platform.

In light of this, Crowdfund Insider’s headline “Germany’s Second Largest Bank, Commerzbank, said to Launch P2P Platform this Year” seems to suggest a familiar speculatory path is being trodden, particularly as it comes from “informed sources” whispering in the ear of the P2P-Banking.com blog. The article claims that German behemoth Commerzbank plans to launch its own P2P Lending marketplace, “Main Funders”, in 2016. Yet what is particularly interesting here is that this would be the first sign of a bank directly implementing an in-house peer-to-peer lending operation. Why is this interesting? Because it makes a lot of sense, and it could herald a huge change in the way people see peer to peer lending. Plenty of banks, both big and small, are showing an increased appetite for lending across platforms in both the UK, US and Europe. Under German law, only banks can fund loans; to bypass this all existing P2P lending companies in Germany partner with a transaction bank which originates the loan and then sells the proceeds (repayments and interest) to the investors: a complex procedure that is hardly widespread. By building its own platform, Commerzbank would circumvent some of the legal hurdles and provide the tailored, modern and agile solution to SME borrowing that the banks in the UK can’t (or won’t) provide, whilst also offering investors and savers an increase on the miserable rates they are all too used to.

Commerzbank has Main Incubator as their fintech accelerator offering venture capital to start ups, so it is an area that they should know well and more importantly have a vested interest in. This may sound like bad news for smaller peer to peer lending platforms who may fear being muscled out. However, it is more likely a case of “imitation is the sincerest form of flattery”: established banks bring the wealth, history and stature that could help Peer to Peer Lending escape from the bubble of hot air that is “Fintech”. However, is this really P2P lending? We have a bank, a highly regulated entity, entering a market that isn’t so highly regulated, certainly in terms of capital requirements. One of the things that has driven the banks away from SME lending is the large amounts of capital they have to put aside for these loans. This is behind the drive towards Invoice Discounting, which requires less capital to be put aside. Commerzbank’s solution could be that their P2P requires less capital than ordinary SME lending. There’s also the question as to whether Commerzbank, and other German banks, have made sufficient provision for the bad lending of the past. Is this a case of smoke and mirrors in the form of moving things around the balance sheet?

What is certain is that banks’ enthusiasm for P2P lending would produce solid, mutually beneficial relationships that can help SMEs and savers alike. Yes, there will inevitably be teething problems as the banks adapt to the fleet-footed world of P2P lending and the P2P lenders adapt their models to fit the strict regulatory processes of the banks. But Commerzbank’s embryonic P2P marketplace could be the trailblazer that sets the way for future banking… if it exists at all.

Banks see that the future of lending to SMEs is Alternative

Author
Angus Dent
Date

The Bank of England revealed last week that lending to SME’s had dropped in the final three months of 2015 to £599 billion, down from £755 billion last September. Tradition dictates that businesses do not tend to borrow money around Christmas, and those that try are viewed as desperate. Yet these are big numbers: the £156 billion difference from Q3 to Q4 is over 31 times the £4.94 billion all-time figure Nesta estimations that P2P Lenders had facilitated for SMEs. The fact of the matter is that the banks aren’t lending to up and coming businesses that drive the economy, and an increasingly large vacuum is emerging.

The government, keen to plug this gap, had put the “Funding for Lending” scheme in place, in which the banks are offered cheap loans from the Bank of England that are aimed to reach small businesses. Clearly the scheme isn’t working: the Bank of England’s data for the Q4 of 2015 revealed that £6.3 billion (an increase of 262% on the previous quarter) had been borrowed by the bank in the same period. Unless that is going to filter through to all the SME’s in Q1 2016, where is that money going?

The emergence of challenger banks such as Aldermore, Shawbrook and Metro Bank has seen the big banks distance themselves further from SMEs. Aldermore announced that they’ve lent £6.1 billion in 2015, making them the third largest lender on the Funding for Lending scheme. Similarly Shawbrook’s loan book grew 44% to £3.36 billion in 2015 (to put that into perspective, that’s more than the entire P2P Lending industry managed in 2015). These figures are still just a drop in the ocean, however, and it is still very much a case of “if” not “when” UK SMEs are receiving the kind of funding that can help them drive GDP in the near future. In the long term, however, it will be alternative finance that steps in alongside the banks, providing a stable working relationship between the two is maintained.

The banks are already starting to turn to alternative finance platforms who are keen to facilitate funding to both consumers UK SMEs. Funding Circle, for instance, receive referrals from RBS and Sanatander and back in May, Zopa and Metro Bank announced a deal whereby the bank would lend money across their platform to consumers. The trend will continue but the traditionally clunky banking processes are reflected in building the working relationships: banks like to take their time and tend to cherry pick. It is no surprise that only the two bigger players in the UK market have formal partnerships. The emergence of so many Peer to Peer lending platforms, though, specialising in such diverse and niche products, has meant they simply can’t keep up. And if they can’t beat them, they will start to join them in swathes.

Zopa CEO Giles Andrews has said in the past that they don’t allow any institutions to do their own credit analysis on those customers, something that seems unbelievable, given the depth the banks go into even just to set the relationship up in the first place. Furthermore, it’s not as if Zopa can stop anybody carrying out their own credit analysis, especially one of their potentially biggest institutional lenders. But his attitude in general is right: if the banks want to lend to consumers and businesses through alternative finance providers they should be treated the same as all other lenders. It is a democratic process after all.

The lull in funding for SMEs since the credit crunch of 2009 continues, but not for long. Alternative Finance is here to help, and if the banks want a piece of the action they will have to do so on the same terms as everybody else.

Finance from alternative sources to the tune of £12.04 billion can help SMEs drive economic growth

Author
Angus Dent
Date

An old adage that features regularly on this blog is that “SMEs are the lifeblood of the UK economy” and provide the primary driving force for growth. The capacity for SMEs to outperform the market is a factor, but a host of global permutations aligned to the plunging oil price and the Chinese equity “realignment” have curtailed certain growth expectations in the UK despite our healthy performance relative to the rest of Europe.

So, in light of Mark Carney’s recent revelation that the Bank of England had cut its growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 from 2.5% to 2.2% and 2.6% to 2.3% respectively, here is a theoretical look at whether SMEs could make up the 0.3% difference, financed only by sources of alternative finance. The £5.5 billion of finance facilitated by P2P Lenders and Crowdfunders to date (2013-2015) is just a drop in the ocean, despite last week’s comments from a bewildered and misguided Adair Turner trying to convince the public that “The losses on P2P lending that will emerge within the next five to 10 years will make the bankers look like absolute lending geniuses …..”. Let’s just put things into perspective; Adair Turner failed to predict the sub-prime mortgage crisis when he was Vice-Chairman of Merrill Lynch between 2000 and 2006. By 2008, the bank had lost $51.8billion from mortgage backed securities. I won’t be asking him to read my palm any time soon.

A quick outline of the sums: the UK’s GDP was measured at $2.9889 trillion in 2014. It grew by 2.4% in 2015 (according to the World Bank). The 0.3% downward swing in Carney’s growth projections for 2016 (2.5% down to 2.2%) is worth around $10.1 billion, which converted to GBP is around £7.04 billion. 2014 saw growth of 161% for the alternative finance sector; The Telegraph was quick to point out that growth had “slumped” to 84% for 2015, although in such a young industry there will be skewed statistics early on. Nesta’s 2015 UK Alternative Finance Industry report has projected between 55% and 60% growth for 2016; a 57.5% growth rate will see the industry lend £5.04 billion. This figure will have to be included in my 2016 GDP projections, meaning the alternative finance sector in 2016 would have to grow 337.5% to £12.08 billion from £3.2 billion 2015 to make up the 0.3% of GDP lost in Carney’s latest finger in the wind. And that is assuming that all of the other facets that make up GDP remain true to prediction. See the graphic below for an illustration of the figures:

updated graph

So, what can we take from all this? Firstly, whilst the figures aren’t exactly astronomical, nobody in their right mind would guarantee such a large jump in the space of a year. But crucially, the potential is there for alternative finance to really make a difference in driving GDP growth through helping SMEs, the lifeblood of the economy. As banks and platforms start to work together, we will see the industry continue to grow at steady rates, and the money lent to SMEs help drive economic growth. The industry should at least be aiming for that extra £7 billion for 2016; with a push anything is possible.