The FCA’s tailored regulation of P2P Lenders is for the benefit of everybody

A theme that has begun to emerge in alternative finance article headlines at the moment is that there is a perceived love-in between the FCA and peer-to-peer lending, with George Osborne an enthusiastic Cupid-like figure matching the two. The regulatory body has come in for criticism from the old guard that believe the old scourge of the banks has gone soft on the new “tech” whizz kids on the block. This isn’t helped by the frequently-cited, well-intentioned-but-slightly-undermining quote by economic secretary to the treasury Harriet Baldwin that government and fintech share a “beautiful friendship”.

George Osborne

 

Yet there are incongruities between news article headlines and article content. Take John Thornhill’s article, published in the Financial Times last week, which began with the suggestion that “a watchdog with the ‘right touch’ sounds ominously like one with a ‘light touch’ “, before proceeding to make some very reasonable points on why the FCA applies slightly different regulatory procedures to start-ups and small cap businesses than it does to centuries-old banking institutions. Throwing the same rule book would crush every start-up under a mountain of excessive regulation and process, and would negate much of the innovation sorely needed to replace the antiquated banking practices. The FCA’s “approach” should be commended as forward-thinking- let’s remember that it really is just an approach at the moment as the majority of the platforms are still in the midst of the lengthy and detailed regulatory process that certainly doesn’t feel light touch.

The revelations coming from the States regarding Lending Club have done nothing to dampen criticisms of the FCA/peer-to-peer perceived cosiness either. Yet it is the willingness for the FCA to work directly with peer-to-peer lending platforms that has, and will, prevent the blatantly reprehensible behaviour that wasn’t detected initially in the States; there, the industry has been regulated under a blend of existing consumer and banking regulation that has proven to be unsuitable. Working to tailor the regulation to the peer-to-peer sector will prevent swathes of old-fashioned banking malpractice carrying over to modern finance. Renaud Laplanche, by acting in his own self-interest, assumed a guise firmly rooted in the past, not endemic to the burgeoning P2P sector that prides itself on transparency and openness.

Every platform will now be keen to highlight the differences between themselves and Lending Club, although there will have been many who, this time last year, would have been perfectly happy to seek comparison with one of the biggest players in the global sector. However, if all must be tarred with the ubiquitous “Fintech” brush then there is one obvious point to make from a UK peer-to-peer lending view. We are very much the “fin” side of the portmanteau as true providers of alternative finance – the “tech” only applies to the platforms used to facilitate loans. Unlike Lending Club- which initially positioned itself as a social networking service and developed an algorithm called LendingMatch to identifying common relationship factors such as geographic location, educational and professional background, and connectedness within a given social network to match lenders with borrowers- UK platforms are not primarily algorithm-driven and rely on due diligence processes at least as thorough as those of the banks to vet borrowers. But the Lending Club debate shouldn’t necessitate these explanations- this is (possible) criminal activity from a senior management team undoubtedly out to furnish their own pockets. The FCA will continue their stringent, tailored regulation of the industry to prevent this happening over here, regardless of the baseless accusations that they’re cutting corners to appease the government.

 

Where now for Lending Club?

[avatar]

Tuesday marked the end of the sell-side quiet period. This means underwriting banks can now publish their ratings and give us some insight as to where they see the stock price going in the coming months.

So how have Lending Club faired? All recognise the huge potential in terms of products, services, geography and the fact Lending Club is still growing at a significant pace. However, the general consensus seems to be that the current value reflects many of these points and the share price should begin to settle down at around $22.

  • Stifel was a ‘Hold’ but gave no price target this time
  • Goldman Sachs were ‘Neutral’ rating and believe that $22 is where they see things settling
  • Citigroup were ‘Neutral’ and set a $23 target
  • Morgan Stanley were ‘Neutral’ and a expect $22;
  • Only BMO Capital issued an ‘Outperform’ and expect to see the $28 range again

There’s no doubt that the LendingClub’s IPO has put Marketplace Lending (P2P, Crowdlending etc.) firmly on the map. However, it is just as important for our industry that a stable share price, in-line with analysts’ expectations and Lending Club’s ambitions are delivered.

Lending Club’s IPO: A watershed moment for P2P Lending?

[avatar user=”Tom Mitchell” /]

As the autumn nights have drawn in, many financial analysts have begun to reflect on a year that has already seen the peer-to-peer industry break numerous records globally. Yet recent news from the US suggests that our fledgling industry is set to achieve another significant milestone before the year is out.

Having launched in 2007, Lending Club fast became the largest peer-to-peer lending platform in the USA – and, indeed, the world – having originated over $6.2 billion of loans to date. As such, news of the platform’s planned Initial Public Offering (IPO) on the NYSE has been greeted with enormous interest, with numerous investment banks vying to manage the deal.

This event, which is currently scheduled to take place later this month, carries real significance for two key reasons in the author’s opinion. Firstly, it serves to validate the peer-to-peer experiment begun by Zopa in the UK, and followed in the US by Lending Club and Prosper. As Orchard’s Matt Burton puts it, “No one took social media seriously until Facebook IPO-ed. For all the people who are not taking this space seriously it’s harder to ignore once you have companies go public.” Lending Club’s CEO Renaud Laplanche has echoed these sentiments, explaining in an interview that it is a perfect opportunity to strengthen their brand and develop awareness.

Secondly, and equally importantly, the value that is ascribed to Lending Club by the market will naturally set a precedent for all future platforms that look to issue equity in the capital markets. As it stands, many analysts predict that a valuation of between $4 billion – $5 billion is the likely outcome. However, given that the platform will be the first peer-to-peer lender to IPO, an obvious question arises: how should the company actually be valued? In predicting a valuation of over $4 billion, the majority of analysts have chosen to align Lending Club with technology firms such as Twitter and Facebook, which often trade at many times book value and other multiples. But to value Lending Club as a pure technology company is problematic, for it ignores the fact that, despite its new and innovative structure, Lending Club is also a financial services provider. More traditional financial institutions, such as banks, usually trade at much lower multiples than technology firms, and as a result the platform’s current valuation leaves it at odds here.

One would hope that analysts’ current appraisals of Lending Club prove to be a true reflection of the company’s future earnings potential. Whatever value the market ultimately places on the platform, though, the ramifications from its IPO will be substantial.